April Showers Do What Now?

Did you know April was Sexual Assault Awareness Month?  Probably not.  So, in that spirit, here’s some other information about sexual assault you probably didn’t know!

A major study in 1987 by Mary Koss found that 27% of college women had been victims of at least one rape or attempted rape.  This is the source of the common “1 in 4 college women” rape statistic that tends to float around universities.  And, it’s got (at least) 3 big problems with it.

First, is the common sense problem.  If 25% of girls who go to college are raped, and this information is widely distributed, who the hell would send their daughter to college, and what reasonable woman would stay?  Of course, the natural response from the feminist camp is to say that women have a right to go to college and rapists should not be able to scare them out.  Well sure.  But, imagine there was a really bad part of down, and if you walk down the street at night, you had a 1 in 4 chance of being just mugged.  Would you go there, even though you had a right to?  Probably not.  You’d say “Muggers, you win, I’m going to go somewhere else, even though I have a right to walk down that street.”

If women really believed these statistics, we’d see calls for increased police presence on college campuses, maybe even the national guard.  We’d also see the quick segregation of men’s and women’s universities because the demand for all-women’s schools would be huge.  But, instead we just see calls for more awareness, which suggests that even that advocates don’t believe the problem is as severe as they claim.  Bad, yes, definitely, will not argue there.

Rape is bad.  Rapists should be punished.  End of discussion on that.

But, that doesn’t mean we can throw facts and common sense out the window.

Still on the common sense objection to the 1 in 4 number, we have to ask who are the rapists?  Do we really believe that 1 in 4 college men is a rapist?  Doubtful.  And actually, it’d be a higher percentage, because women are 60% of college students.  So, for every 100 students, we’d have 60 women, 15 of whom had been raped.  That means for the 40 college men, there are 15 rapes, or 37.5% of college men are rapists.  WTF?!  No fracking way.  Even if we assume that there are a smaller number of serial rapists, we’d have a statistic along the lines of 1 in every 10 college men being on the FBI’s most wanted list.  Seriously, call the national guard right fracking now.

Moving on the second problem, these studies rely on pretty dubious statistical inferences.  A lot of them ask questions not about your entire life, but rather about a shorter period of time, often the previous year or the previous 6 months, and then they extrapolate trends from that data.  If 5% of college women were victims of sexual assault in the previous 6 months, then 40% of women will be raped in their 4 years of college!  It’s a little more sophisticated than that, but that’s the gist of it.

A better way of conducting these polls would be to ask two questions in place of this one; have you been the victim of a sexual assault since starting college, and how long have you been attending?  Wondering what’s the difference?

Imagine you were asked whether you were the victim of a sexual assault in the past 6 months.  And, 8 months ago you were raped by another student.  Would you answer yes or no?  Would you really sit there trying to make sure you remember the exact date it happened, and then count back the number of months to make sure it fell within the time frame, or would you just think yes, you’ve been raped recently.  If you did do the math, and found your experience fell outside the time frame, would you simply allow your experience to go uncounted, or would you include it anyways?

If asking about the previous 6 months gets responses for the previous 8 months, then a positive response rate of 5% multiplied out to 40% should actually only become 30%.  So, you can see how these numbers can get inflated extremely quickly.  I imagine it’s actually quite worse than even what I proposed.  If you asked me if I had been the victim of a violent crime in the last 6 months, I think I might actually consider the last year, maybe even a bit more.  It pretty much just comes down to how big of an impact the event had on me, how fresh the memory is, how pissed off I still am about it, and how much I want my voice to be heard.

The final problem with these studies, and especially the Mary Koss study, is that they use an over-broad definition of rape.  The studies don’t stop at asking conclusory questions, such as “were you raped?”  They ask about other things, such as whether you had sex with someone while intoxicated, and then conclude that you were raped.  Intoxication means you can’t consent, no consent means rape.  Of course, they don’t ask things like whether the other person was also intoxicated (in which case you’re probably a rapist too, which makes no sense), or whether the person was your boyfriend and your normal weekend routine is to get drunk and screw, and you get drunk with that specific act in mind.  Nope, what they do is take information which is ambiguous and draw improper conclusions.

In the Koss study, 73% of the women counted as rape victims did not label their own experiences as rape.  The cry from the feminist camp is that this just shows women who are raped don’t always think of themselves as rape victims.  Maybe they don’t understand that date rape is real rape, or they blame themselves, etc.  What the feminist camp fails to consider is that maybe the studies include things that aren’t rape.  Do we really think that 73% of rape victims don’t know they were raped?  Do we think women are that stupid?

Odds are both things are happening.  Some women who were raped don’t recognize the crime for what it is, and some women who really weren’t raped are counted as victims.  Any way to get an idea of how much from each group we’re getting?  Actually, there is!

In the Koss study, 42% of the women counted as rape victims subsequently dated and had sex with their supposed attacker.  Now maybe some women don’t count getting drunk and being taken advantage of as rape, but they still know it’s bad, and I can’t imagine many of those women are going to date their attackers after the fact.  I think we have to assume that virtually all of this 42% were not raped, but are rather reported by Koss as false positives.  This means that of the 73% who said they had not been raped, more than half of those women were correct.  If you said you weren’t raped and the Koss study said you were, odds are you were not and the Koss study is wrong.

And of course, it doesn’t stop there.  Some women will have voluntarily gotten drunk with the intention of having sex, but then didn’t date and have sex again with the same person.  That’s right, women are just as capable as men of having one night stands.  No idea how many, but we’re talking about college here, so it’s probably not an insignificant number.  I think it’s pretty safe to say that adding these women in with the 42% who did have sex again with their supposed rapist, we can conclude that over half the women counted as rape victims in the Koss study were not raped.

Just to make sure there’s no confusion here, sexual assault is bad.  Rape is bad.  People who commit these acts should be punished.  But, awareness means facts.

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15 Responses to “April Showers Do What Now?”

  1. BJ-C Says:

    These stats bite the big-un.

    27% of women are not raped. These women probably all have morning after regret, but no one was stopping them when they volunteered to suck the men’s dicks dry the night before.

    Also, no one was tellling them to shove their va-jay-jays into the guy’s face screaming for them to lick harder and deeper? Not those women I suppose.

    But come morning, all become vestal virgins and figure out a way to justify why it is they can’t claim to be innocents any more.

    They’ll go on fucking, too, and crying foul. Best advice: Be careful and bang only those broads who have a sexual reputation.

    This is a joke. Women who fuck should not be able to cry rape when they sober up the next day.

  2. bl2y (no relation) Says:

    Whoa. You just “raped” my mind.

  3. Laura G Says:

    Women are disadvantaged when it comes to this, because men weigh 60 to 70 lbs more, and resistance is impossible, even when we are fully sober.

    So men should know that women who say no mean no, even if things are romantic up until that point. If they do not, it is forceable sex and that is what rape is.

  4. bl1y Says:

    First, the average male (191lbs) weighs 27 pounds more than the average female (164 lbs), not 60 or 70 pounds more.

    Second, resistance is quite possible, even with a 70 pound difference in weight. Do you know what you’re supposed to do if attacked by a black bear? You are supposed to fight back. Average male black bear (250lbs) weighs 60 pounds more than the average American male, and is much more physically fit, but only around 2% of black bear attacks are fatal. If a man can fight off a bear, you can fight off a man.

    In fact, if someone attempts a violent forcible rape (as opposed to forcible rape by threat or involuntary intoxication), you’re likewise supposed to fight back. Women who fight against their attackers tend to be very successful, and actually sustain fewer injuries. The fact of the matter is, it is incredibly hard to rape someone purely through over powering them, and if you fight back, you will win. Of course, this says nothing about attackers who bring a weapon or a posse. But, 1-on-1, if you fight, you will win.

    Finally, women need to learn that women who say no often don’t mean no. We would accept “no always means no” if only it were true, and the only people who can make it true are women. 50 nos and a yes is a yes.

  5. Al D Says:

    I would never want to have sex or even get frisky with a woman who weighed 164+ pounds. That, my friend, is a pig, unless she was 6 foot 4, and then she’d be an Amazon. How many men would knowingly bone a babe that big? Not me, fella. I’d fall into someone that big and might never come out. The little ones aren’t that great either. I say 135-140 tops for a good time.

  6. Botya Says:

    I agree with Al D. We have lots of heavy weights at my school, and I can tell you, there is no way I would go out with a law student when there are many pretty undergrads at my school as well as in NY City.

    Women kid themselves into thinking they can hook a guy just because they are in law school. I say if you are ugly or fat, being a lawyer doesn’t change anything. But 135-140 seems a little heavy for my tastes, Al.

  7. Emma Says:

    There’s a couple of problems with your arguments……..

    1) The analogy with the “bad part of town”

    This is a terrible analogy. A bachelor’s degree is necessary for more and more jobs these days, and makes a pretty huge difference in salaries. For the analogy to make sense, you’ve got to mention that walking through the bad part of town is necessary for most women to get to their jobs each day.

    2) The conclusion that 37.5% of college males are rapists

    The statistic is “1 in 4 college women are raped” not “1 in 4 college women are raped by college men.” Also, most rapists do not commit one rape and then stop. That’s just a fact.

    That’s all.

  8. bl1y Says:

    1) There are still some schools that are almost exclusively women’s schools, so you don’t have to go to the “bad part of town” to get your higher education. Also, there hasn’t been any huge increase in demand for these schools because of the risk of rape, which suggests it’s not a real risk.

    2) The vast majority of rapes are by acquaintances, and for college women that generally means college men.

    And, I specifically addressed the last point, that it’s not 1 rape per rapist. Even if you had serial rapists, you’d still need something on the order of 1 in 10 college men being serial rapists.

  9. shatterspike1 Says:

    I see stupidity on both sides here.

    Women: 1 in 4 college women are raped is a massively overinflated statistic. If this was so, then we would hear far more about it. That should be fairly obvious, and if it isn’t, you should learn to stop being afraid of every shadow. A woman can fight off a man, if you say “it’s impossible to resist”, you give up easily. That’s self defeating behavior.

    Men: Saying it’s “morning after regret” is in the same line of thinking as “She was dressed provocatively, she had it coming” or “They shouldn’t have been carrying around money if they didn’t want me to steal it”. Even if no doesn’t always mean no, you should treat it as such. I’m not exactly sure when no has meant yes. Also, speaking about weight in an article on rape? What the FUCK is wrong with you? You make us look bad. Keep your mouth shut on things you can’t speak intelligently about.

  10. bl1y Says:

    shatterspike: I know some people who are in the “it’s all morning after regret” camp, and I definitely disagree with that. -Some- accusations are morning after regret, but those are probably pretty rare. The problem I wanted to highlight here is that the statistics are taking situations which aren’t rape and calling them rape. It’s not victims falsely claiming rape, but rape being decided by some crazy third party.

    As for why I discuss weight, it’s to illustrate the fact that women can, generally, fight off men (which you agree with). When intoxicants, weapons, or accomplices are introduced, you probably can’t resist, but in the archetypal “man jumps out of a bush” scenario, you can fight it off. If a man can fight off a bear, a woman can fight off a man.

  11. Anonymous Says:

    I’m not going to argue that these stats aren’t way off – all of them. What I do find issue with is making arguments about 1 in 4 women must mean that there was one rapist for all of them. I can’t remember the specifics of this study (and i realize that that makes me sound like a phony), but some folks went around asking college males about their sex lives. Most were your average guy whose sexual encounters were all consensual. But there were some guys who did have sex with girls who couldn’t give consent for whatever reason – and those guys made a habit of it. Moreover, they were clearly excited to talk about it with the researchers and had no problem going into great detail of the encounters without any remorse. And I consider someone having sex with you when you can’t give consent to be rape.
    So 1 in 4? I donno. The stats are undoubtedly pumped up to account for the fact that way more people are raped than report it. Mostly, girls try to watch themselves or put themselves around people they think they’ll be safe with if they drink too much. But scummy folks exist, rape happens, and the stats serve to get college girls to maybe think a bit more before they head out to that party.

  12. bl1y Says:

    “I do find issue with is making arguments about 1 in 4 women must mean that there was one rapist for all of them. [...] But there were some guys who did have sex with girls who couldn’t give consent for whatever reason – and those guys made a habit of it.”

    It sounds like the point your making is that there aren’t a bunch of one-time offenders, but rather a smaller number of serial rapists.

    I’m pretty sure if you re-read the post and my comments, you’ll find that I’ve made that point.

  13. A_Guy Says:

    Here is a good break down of how Koss came to her conclusions for any who are curious:
    http://www.leaderu.com/real/ri9502/sommers.html

  14. bl1y Says:

    Really great article, thanks for posting it. I’ve read some of Sommers’s stuff before, and bringing up her name shuts down conversation with the extreme feminists faster than saying “male rights.”

  15. Truth Says:

    Mary Koss should be burned on the stake and sent to hell for lying and slandering an entire gender with wild allegation she pulled out of her ass. Fact is 40-60% of all rape cases in the US is false.

    @Laura maybe they are at a disadvantage but still doesn’t mean girls should get a free “cry false rape” card for any crime/ felony available (False Rape Society). They should use their BRAINS (that’s why they have friends, that’s why they travel in groups) same thing goes for men and women it doesn’t matter.

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